THE DECADES-OLD proposal to link all of India's major rivers with one another was revived with much fanfare last year. Most political parties welcomed it then as a solution to the country's drinking water and irrigation problems. But it has not taken long for the proposal to come face to face with the hard reality of planning what will be the largest project ever taken up in India.
A number of States, from Punjab in the north to Kerala in the south, have expressed their opposition to a transfer of river waters from their territory to other States. The latest example is the considerable anxiety in Kerala about including a link between the Pampa and the Achankovil (flowing through Kerala) and the Vaippar (in Tamil Nadu) in the proposed national river grid. This is only one of many reasons why the ambitious, many would say unrealistic, schedules for execution of the project have already been thrown out of gear.
The high-level task force on the project, constituted in December 2002, was expected to prepare the schedule for completion of feasibility studies and estimate the cost of the project by the end of April this year. It was to then come up in June with the options for funding the project. It was also expected to convene a meeting in May/June of State Chief Ministers and obtain their agreement and cooperation. None of these deadlines has been met and there is no indication that these events will take place in the near future.
This is not surprising, for while the interlinking proposal has been spoken about for decades, all the complex engineering, economic, environmental and social issues involved in the project have never been carefully studied. It is, therefore, not an easy task to draw up in a few months even the time lines for implementation. It will also be impossible to complete within a decade (as decreed by the Supreme Court) execution of a project that at first approximation is estimated to cost Rs. 5,60,000 crores, which is twice the size of India's gross domestic product at present.
In fact, the one Government committee that did examine aspects of the proposal to some extent, the National Commission for an Integrated Water Resources Development Plan, was in 1999 ambivalent about the benefits of interlinking the country's rivers. The drought of 2002 was the context in which the proposal to build a grid connecting India's rivers was revived. Before another drought leads to another round of active interest in the project, it is necessary to come up with answers to two broad sets of questions.
The first question is, what will be the total costs and benefits of a river grid project in economic, environmental and social terms. The second will be, what are the different options to meet the future requirements of water and is the interlinking proposal the best among them. Answers to these questions will have to address issues in agricultural technology, patterns of water use, extraction of ground and surface water resources, efficiency in consumption of water in crop cultivation, resource mobilisation, human displacement and changes in the environment. A plan on such a scale and of such complexity as the proposal to link the country's rivers can be taken up only after a range of such substantive issues are analysed threadbare.
AFTER Suresh Prabhu resigned from the Union Cabinet, he was entrusted with the river-linking project, the most ambitious government scheme in recent times. The former power minister spoke with SRINJOY CHOWDHURY
What level of political support does the river-linking project have?It has excellent support. The Prime Minister, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, and the Deputy Prime Minister, Mr LK Advani, are in favour. Other members of the Cabinet are very supportive. The President of India, Dr APJ Abdul Kalam, has also spoken in favour of river linking. Major political parties are game but I haven't heard from many state governments as yet. I'm speaking with Members of Parliament and Members of the Legislative Assembly.
What about opposition to this very ambitious scheme? Lalooji (Laloo Prasad Yadav, former chief minister of Bihar) has spoken against it. The Asom Gana Parishad has made noises...Most of the opposition appears to be about the transfer of use of water from one state to another. There is a false impression that water resources will be lost. The data suggests that a state cannot use water beyond a particular point. There is also the flooding issue to be taken note off. Besides, the process will not take away from the state to consider its future needs. The project will not make the state forfeit the right to utilise water in the future. Only 'damaging' water will be optimally utilised. There will be no compromise of future development plans. Agreements will not be altered either.
What benefits will accrue?A number of states have severe problems because of floods. River-linking will end that. There will be more irrigation facilities. Navigation facilities, specially in the East, North and North-east will improve. This will reduce pressure on transport facilities. Power generation could improve. The North-east could even 'export' hydro-electric power. Then, there is the employment issue. There could be 10 million new jobs a year, including spin-offs. I have asked experts to look into the issues. Agriculture will benefit. In parts of India, agriculture is underdeveloped and the potential for improvement is the highest. This is more so in eastern India. Besides, horticulture could develop. There could be tourism and even, fishery development.
Have you consulted experts?I have been speaking to all kinds of people - people who know about economic, social, environmental and scientific issues. I want to find about about possible ecological problems, desertification, pollution, siltation and about the possibility of sea-water entering. I have spoken with people at NEERI, forestry and wildlife experts, the Indian institutes of technology, hydrologists. Simulation studies are being done. I have asked ICICI to ascertain the total cost. Then, after a detailed report on the 30 links are ready, a proper cost-benefit ratio will emerge. One estimate is about Rs 700,000 crores. It is a huge project. We will work with a number of agencies, including international ones, before producing a detailed project report.
Other countries are also involved. How is India going to approach the issue?The foreign ministry is handling some of the work. I will speak with Yashwant Sinha (external affairs minister) to discuss issues with neighbouring countries like Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Chandrasekhar Dasgupta (senior diplomat who retired recently) will be the resource person for the project. He will interact with others. Several Latin American have expressed interest. We need to discuss certain things. Other experts are being consulted. We have approached Dr Kasturirangan (the ISRO chief) for remote-sensing data. His surveys will help to decide on the alignment of the canals. Others being consulted include KB Kamath of ICICI.
A lot of people will be displaced. Will you take care of that?When it comes to helping displaced people, we have a bad track record. The alignments with satellite technology will help to ensure the number of displaced people is kept to a minimum. We have a Special Purpose Vehicle in mind. There will be judicial involvement also in the effort to ensure full rehabilitation of the displaced people. The work of the implementing agencies will be checked by NGOs who have an interest in the project.
And when will the project be complete?By 2016. That is the outer deadline. The report will take a year.